A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."